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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:52 am Post subject: Stocks Bear Market - Dow Theory Proves Correct! |
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By: Tim_Wood
In spite of its criticisms, the Dow theory is once again proving correct. The one thing that the advance up out of the 2002 low has proven is that the single most important aspect of Dow theory is the concept of joint price confirmation above and below previous secondary high and low points. Basically, nothing else matters. In accordance with this basic concept, the primary trend first turned bullish on June 4, 2003. As the market advanced in the wake of mountains of liquidity the values did not make sense. Also, when looking at the phasing aspect of Dow theory it appeared that the rally out of the 2002 low was a giant secondary reaction and counter-trend advance.
Understand that cycles have absolutely nothing to do with Dow theory, but from a cyclical perspective we have also been operating in an extremely stretched 4-year cycle. It's now so stretched that we are operating within the second longest cycle in stock market history. The statistics have been and continue to be very much against the market. Yet, the market chugged higher and higher stretching the cycle and the statistics even further. In the process, this move has indeed proven that the value and phasing aspects of Dow theory are subordinate to the basic concept of primary trend confirmation. From a Dow theory perspective, nothing else has mattered and as reported here, the first and only bearish primary trend change since the 2002 low occurred on November 21, 2007.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3344.html |
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