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Nadeem Veteran Investor


Joined: 11 Jul 2004 Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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Posted: Mon Jan 29, 2007 4:23 pm Post subject: The Real International Price of Silver |
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What is the real price of an ounce of silver and just how widespread should a silver bull market be? We have watched over the last few years as the price of silver in US dollars has marched upwards from the lows of $4 to the recent highs of $15. However, the good luck of silver has been mainly laid at the door of the bad luck of US dollar. The US dollar depreciates and hence the price of silver in US dollars appreciates. Seems a simple enough equation, but surely a real bull market will stand on its own merits and not on the misfortunes of another? With that in mind, is silver worth investing in by lovers of silver from other countries across the globe?
To answer that question, I have come up with the Silver Analyst Composite Price or the SACP for short. The SACP attempts to ask the question of how much is silver really worth. As I said, silver is increasing in US dollar terms but the US dollar is also depreciating in the international currency markets. Based on this, we may fear that silver may not be faring so well in other major currencies such as the Yen or Euro. If the silver bull market is for real, we should expect to see an increase internationally and across the board.
To that end, the SACP is an equally weighted composite of the silver spot price in six major world currencies. These are the US dollar, the Euro, the Yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar. The chart is then rebased to the start of the silver bull market in June 2003 where the SACP is set to one. In this way we can see exactly how the international silver bull market has progressed in the last three and a half years. As you examine the chart below, the international bull market hit a recent peak of 2.95 on the 12th May 2006. That tells you right away that silver as measured across a broad range of currencies has almost tripled in price since June 2003. In other words, it's an international bull market in silver after all!
In fact, there is not too great a disparity between silver prices across the globe. If one looked at the US dollar price rebased to the bull market start, you would get a corresponding multiple of 3.31 indicating that though the US dollar-denominated bull market is the strongest of the six, silver is 12% weaker on a global basis. The table below gives the end of year values for each currency rebased to 1 from the start of the silver bull market:
Full article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article277.html |
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