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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2007 7:32 am Post subject: US Interest Rates & Bond Market forecast for 2007 |
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The US Bond market had a volatile year, as the market wrestled with a resurgence in inflation during the first half of the year, and then rallied in the 2nd half on a weakening economy and speculations that US interest rates had or were near their peak.
The Fundamental Economic Picture - The US economy ends 2006, with slowing economic growth, a weak housing market, rising inflation and a declining dollar. The economic picture this paints both call for higher and lower interest rates. Where we need to look at for further clues is to the Fed. What would the Fed do ?, More importantly what has the Fed done in the past. The answer to this is clear - Cut interest rates and print money to ignite economic. Thus, even with rising inflation, and a falling dollar, the Federal reserve is likely to focus more on attempting to boost a slowing economy by cutting US interest rates as the danger is clear that another leg lower in the US real estate market on the back of record amounts of mortgage debt could tip the US into recession during 2007. That's the fundamental picture.
Full article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article192.html
Summary Forecast - The Current trend is targeting a decline in the US TBond towards 106 from the current 111.5. The time frame for this decline is to between March and May 07. This trend is supported by the expected bearish trend of the US dollar price patterns going into the new year.
The US bond market remains in a long-term up trend, the weakening US economy, despite higher inflation and a falling dollar supports the view that the US bonds will rise towards the 118 level or higher by the end of 2007.
Full article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article192.html |
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