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UK inflation hits the Bank of England's 3% CPI limit

 
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Sarah
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 4:55 pm    Post subject: UK inflation hits the Bank of England's 3% CPI limit Reply with quote
The UK inflation rate as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), hit the upper limit of 3% today. The highest level in over a decade supports the Bank of England's surprise decision to raise interest rates last week to 5.25% from 5%. (Bank of England raises UK interest rates to 5.25%, catching the financial markets off guard )



The CPI figures virtually guarantee further rises in UK interest rates during 2007.

The Market Oracle warned of substantial interest rate hikes during 2007 to 5.75% by the 2nd half of 2007 in the articles of 26th December 2006, UK Interest Rate forecast for 2007 - Bank of England to do battle with inflation and 7th November 2006 UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007

Today's news not only supports the interest rate rise expectations but brings forward the possibilities that interest rates may even exceed the 5.75% target. However, the impact of the recent sharp falls in energy prices will likely reduce this possibility if that trend persists for the duration of the 2007.

Sterling is expected to be further supported by the news, as higher UK interest rates will further attract carry trade investments into UK sterling, i.e. the borrowing in low interest rate currencies such as the Japanese Yen, and the investment in higher interest rate currencies such as the British Pound.
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JayJay
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 2:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
I saw on the news that the actual inflation rate for a lot of people is far higher than what the official figures reveal, at least 5% and for pensioners more like 8% !

Also many mortgage providers are withdrawing fixed rates, looks like they are gearing up to much higher interest rates
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housebuyer
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:01 am    Post subject: BBC - Why the sharp rise in inflation? Reply with quote
When the retail prices index was last growing this quickly, 15 years ago, interest rates were at 10.5%.

They're not likely to go that high any time soon, but that does emphasise that in the decade of Bank of England independence we have become accustomed - perhaps too accustomed - to inflation that's low and stable, and the interest rates that go with it.

We've enjoyed all this, partly thanks to falls in the global prices of manufactured imports, from Chinese textiles to toys.

And thanks to high levels of inward migration which have kept wages in check and removed bottlenecks in the economy.

Those disinflationary pressures, allowed the Bank of England to keep rates low, and let spending grow fast without the rising prices that curtailed previous periods of growth.

Energy pressures

So what if anything, has gone wrong now?

Arguably, the benefit of cheap imports from is China is beginning to diminish as higher energy prices kick in.

The average price of manufactured goods (excluding fuel) is still falling. But it's not falling as quickly as it was a year ago. So its downward effect on the overall inflation figure is weaker than it used to be.

If that's right, the Bank has to start applying the brakes. Indeed, it might be thinking it should have done so earlier.

Blip?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6268819.stm
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Sugarbabe
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
Don't forget the RPI rate which is running along at 4% now !

I think the days of low inflation are coming to an end, and I will heed the recent flood of articles suggeting we should all buy gold ! Smile
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cardjunkie
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
RPI is at 4.4% ! can you imagien that ! Forget CPI, RPI is the real measure of inflation !

All your investments at 5% only barely cover inflation !!
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