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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 1:20 am Post subject: Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis |
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I'm sure there were readers who couldn't understand the bullish tone from last week's update after the S&P closed on the lows that Friday and looked as if it was about to fall off a cliff. There was plenty of talk last weekend of a “running flat” second wave.
Such a pattern is when the underlying trend is so strong that it overwhelms the correction and, in a decline, wave c is unable to exceed the peak of wave a. Monday's gap down should have ensured the doubters that this was in fact the correct pattern and that the trap door had been opened for the third of a third … again .
Since the Forums run 24/7, I posted this chart on Sunday night which clearly shows where I thought support was about to show up.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article502.html
Last edited by Shahla on Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:17 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Sun Mar 18, 2007 5:03 am Post subject: S&P Stock Market Analysis & Forecast : Knockdown, Dr |
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“I also think the boxing gloves might come off and we'll be in for a real street fight at the first gap off the lows.”
If you read last week's update, then you should've been expecting the total bull vs. bear streetfight that broke out like a gang riot at Wednesday's lows.
But did you have the guts to pull the trigger?
There were two things I mentioned last week that should have had readers buying Wednesday's lows with no sweat. The first was the quote above, and the second was this:
It's still possible to see new highs AND new lows from here. Did the magic number 1360 put in a bottom in the futures market or does the cash market need to be tested and decide?”
So, even if you weren't a member, last week's update gave you enough information to get in on Wednesday's trade. But everyone in the forums and the chatroom got a much clearer picture as the week progressed. For starters, since we didn't have any confirmation of either a low or a high being in place, we looked to the rally after the first drop in May as a roadmap, and found the correlation too sweet to pass up. As we waited to see what the market's true intentions were, the chart below was posted late Monday night with the caption, “ Lets clear it or short it. ”
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article545.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 8:35 pm Post subject: Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Show |
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Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Show me the money
Surprise, surprise, another volatile week. The bears got their big selloff, but it was in corn, not in the S&P's! Corn opened down lock limit as the S&P's created great trading opportunities for the “unbiased” trader.
As we ended 2006, I promised 2007 would be the year of volatility, and hasn't that been the truth?! It feels like only yesterday we were grinding up each day point by point. Friday's closing bell wrapped up March, as well as the first quarter, but investors who were pegged to the S&P are in for a surprise when they receive their quarterly statements. The S&P closed 2 points from its 2006 close.
I'm sure many traders did better, but I'm also sure many are in the red this year. After all the juicy swings we've seen so far, that can only happen by being with the “in crowd” and following the wrong sentiment all over town. In January and February, bulls stayed too long and bears shorted too early. As we fell from the diagonal, Bulls bought back too early and bears stayed too late. Meanwhile, unbiased traders are making money on both ends.
But not only did the bears stay short too long when the market turned back up recently, they've been buying puts everyday as the S&P's retrace a full 75% off the lows. Traders have been playing this broken record for the last 4 years! Isn't this setup played out by now? Sure, this could be the real one, but why give back 75% when we have no confirmation yet?
Since March 14 th , where we saw our SPX 1360 area validated, it's been a challenge to educate our rapidly growing number of new members. Old members who've successfully made the transition from bear to trader are just fine. Many new members still seem to want to follow the crowd and are having a tough time because the streets are filled with “crash” counts. I can't really blame them as it's a hard sentiment to escape from. That said, they are also starting to recognize that going long from 1360's to 1440 also makes your portfolio grow rapidly. Don't get me wrong, I'll be on the bearish side as soon as I see the market grow some fur, but not before that.
A good case in point for the bear camp was the drop in February. Readers all knew that I had an S&P target 1462/1470 and was ready to short it, but not before confirmation. After getting short close to the top, I sensed that a low was being built in March, rather than a trapdoor for continuation of the drop. This week, we might have the same situation, but on a smaller degree. Has the market topped out in a second wave retracement on March 23 rd , or are we about to set a huge bear trap to finally get that run to new highs that sets up the classic capitulation?
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article667.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 7:59 pm Post subject: Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Futur |
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Stocks & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave Analysis - Future's So Bright !
Since I didn't write an update last week, I will go back to the April 1 st update to review where we had left off. In that update I had stated:
“This week, we might have the same situation, but on a smaller degree. Has the market topped out in a second wave retracement on March 23rd, or are we about to set a huge bear trap to finally get that run to new highs that sets up the classic capitulation?
As we've basically nailed these last two swings, we think we have the correct possible patterns and are waiting for a bit more price action to confirm. It might only take another day or two. I believe we will have a decent move within the next 20 points that we are ready to trade.”
As I argued in that update, traders took it for granted that the top was in and they traded and counted it as such. Instead, I had seen the drop from February as a 3 wave correction right into the promised 1360 level. Traders who missed last year's rally wanted to make it up on a 1987-style crash. Unfortunately for them, if you already have a bias, the market can and will dance circles around you.
And that's what it did to many. Most of our new members had to be cautioned right away about adopting the silly crash counts off the March lows. They must be pretty happy now, because emails continue to flood in, thanking me about the “unbiased” style of trading espoused by TTC.
If you missed it, we continued to shine these past two weeks as the same bear trap we've seen for five years again played out. This is the move when the market grinds up to a high it can't sustain, rolls over, and sets up another trap for the bulls to squeeze the bears. Not only did we sense it happening, but the bottom was only 4 points off the famous 1360 level!
So, as everyone continued to move their bearish wave 2 label farther and farther north each day with the market's advances, we were buying the dips instead. If you remember, we bought that selloff into SPX 1408, two weeks ago. That was the low of that swing. How corrective selloffs become impulsive moves to some traders is beyond me. That move was so corrective, it wasn't funny.
From that low, the market immediately started to advance and gap. For several weeks we had a target for the S&P futures of 1452.50 and we got there. And don't forget the April 9 th turn date. The market pretty much delivered both at the same time. (#1 on the chart below). It didn't turn out to be a big turn at all, but blame that to the short covering.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article764.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:33 am Post subject: Nonstop, Straight to the Top |
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I'm sure by now many traders have noticed what's really been going on. It sure does feel as though the capitulation phase I've been waiting to see may be upon us, as this was a brutal week for anyone stuck in a short position from the February top. Or from any of the inviting diversions along the rally from the March lows.
That's just the market doing what it's done ever since its doors opened – it'll get every bear to cover and stop shorting, while getting the late bulls long, as the train appears to be leaving.
So, it sounds like the next step will be easy enough right? Think again, because if it were, everyone would be on the same side and there wouldn't be a market. It's times like these that people like to say, “a market can stay overbought longer than you can remain solvent.” Shorting blindly into a blowoff market because it can't go up any further is a sure disaster for the trader. Having targets, patterns, unique indicators, and an “unbiased” approach is what's needed, and we have it. We have the tools and the momentum, and some of the smartest seasoned traders.
Last weeks update stated:
“We are once again close to a very important juncture, so close that it could be only a few hours away. The map that led us here continues to work perfectly, so we will continue to follow it. If correct, we don't have much to do but make money.
Does the next move become the capitulation stage or once again the talk of a 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd? We believe we know that answer. Bearish sentiment continues to fuel this rally as short traders are forced to cover on each upside surprise. I will be monitoring option sentiment at our nearby target next week.”
Well, we were close alright! We didn't waste a minute gapping up 6 points on Monday and then continuing the grind higher, forcing shorts to cover yet again. Luckily, we weren't trapped into Monday's gap up as we had bought the 1452.50 low last Friday, though I'm sure some members took profit and some held. More importantly, we expressed that we didn't have a sell signal last Friday, so at the very least avoiding having Monday morning's gap up going against you is a great way to start the week.
Readers should remember the statement made from one of our noted market observers at the March lows. He had stated:
“When there have been two readings over 2.5 in the same decline, the market never closes lower than the day of the second reading and has always rallied more than it dropped.”
That promise was achieved this week as the S&P futures passed the February highs. That high also put a halt to traders that continued to push up their wave two bearish count, since wave two cannot make a new high. It's a shame that it took a 100 S&P points for many to see the correct trend and count.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article826.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:10 pm Post subject: Never Fade Our Friend Fibonacci |
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The markets continue to add on points as the S&P gets closer to its destined target of at least 1556. This week closed above the round number of 1500, leaving us just 50 points away, and I'd bet there are plenty of investors who liquidated their stocks along the 2000-2002 decline and are now wondering why they did such a silly thing as that. The buy and hold strategy that got them into that mess now seems to be working perfectly, now that they're no longer in game
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying an investor in garbage stocks from the bubble is anywhere near breaking even, but a well run portfolio would be at least even or worth much more than it was in 2000. It's just that the market is fickle and convinced many to get out at the 2002 /2003 lows, right at the beginning a 5-year run back up to the old highs – and potentially much higher.
Now we sit 50 points below those highs and at a Turn date mentioned weeks ago. Inching up into the 1520 area and exploding north to ring that bell next week is a real possibility. What is that investor that sold everything at the low supposed to do now? They've watched a rising market while hearing that the massive appreciation in real estate is a bubble not unlike the one that burst on them five years ago. Many sold their losing portfolios only to chase a new runaway market. Is this really the way to make money investing?
Our unbiased strategy, on the other hand, has kept us in this rally since 1360, even though last week I started to show concern for the near future. I stated:
“So, now we want to step back on the long side a bit and look for a confirmation of a turn. I must say that sentiment readings aren't anywhere I'd like to see, but then again I'm also not short yet. We'll continue to trade both sides on the intraday while watching for a turn in the larger picture . We have two main themes to work with, one of them looking for a bit more upside over several weeks if it finds support on any small drop in the short term. Members already know the key pivots that need to be taken out.”
That drop on Monday in the S&P which found support going into Tuesday was a gift. That setup is what I call the "triangle trap”, where the market forms a triangle that seems to point up but the breakout is to the downside. We had the signal to go short once as the SPX dropped under 1493. Trading continued down all day as traders got trapped in bullish positions.
Wednesday, the S&P continued to trade lower and set the stage for us. TTC coming to the rescue with the chart of the day and week! I posted the Dow chart below at 1:26 , showing that we could have a C = .618 x A in place. That idea fell into place since we knew that the ending diagonal shown on the chart was only ending a smaller degree 5 th wave.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article933.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2007 11:12 pm Post subject: |
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The S&P closed flat for the week, but as usual, that doesn't mean there weren't some juicy moves along the way. Us unbiased traders at TTC have consistently been on top of every swing, from one side or the other, week after week – and we have the charts to prove it!
The markets opened to the upside on Monday and then pretty much went to sleep for the whole day. I'm sure many traders thought the week would go sideways until the Fed, but Tuesday morning the market proved that wasn't the case with a nice gap down. Monday's close had left pattern traders a bit bullish as the S&P seemed to suggest a triangle that would resolve to the upside. Instead it turned out to be yet another example of what I call the “Triangle Trap”. The chart below was posted before Tuesday's open to suggest once again that we would NOT sell into the gap, but buy it instead.
After a few minutes of vibrating around the target area, price and my proprietary trend charts took off to the upside and gave us an instant 7 points. The trend charts kept us out of shorting a losing gap down and then hinted we should take the money and run as the indicator started rolling over into the close. Below is a chart of the S&P e-mini futures into Tuesday's close.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article986.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Wed May 23, 2007 2:29 am Post subject: Markets Analysis - Houston , We Have LIFT OFF! |
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Can you believe we're just a day's rally away from the 2000 high? I'm sure plenty of investors out there would rather forget about that time, as they were probably buying only to sell out during the severe decline going into the 2002 lows. Now they're wondering if they should be back in. Well, there's thirty-plus points to go and lots of mistakes can be buried in Elliott land as if they never existed.
Some say that controlling emotions is an important part of trading. I say it could be the most important part. The two most destructive emotions for trading are Fear and Greed. I'm sure both have been wreaking havoc lately and are about to kick in on an even more massive scale.
Bears are now fearful as there simply are no pullbacks lately, let alone an outright crash. Cautious bulls have been on the sidelines waiting for an entrance and are now getting ready to greedily jump on the train before it leaves the station. I have a word for emotional trades like these… capitulation!
Emotional trading, like say selling in 2002, can permanently disfigure your portfolio, but once you control emotion and learn to listen to what the market is saying instead of getting your advice from a TV program, broker, or a friend, your trading will be a beautiful thing. This is why the TTC community has become like a security blanket to many of our members. Unlike most other groups, they know I don't tolerate any wrong counts or misguided, one-sided talk that's biased by market positions. We login every day to make money and help our fellow members in the forums as well as the live chatroom. If someone's idea of where the markets are headed is very different from the group's, they can ask questions and refine their reasoning.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1047.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:05 pm Post subject: Stocks & Commodity Markets Analysis - Don't Say the Cras |
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By: Dominick
Finally, a double top! Or, wait, was it just a pullback in an uptrend?
The volatility we promised back in January has been a constant theme this year, and the market continues to punish anyone that is wrong or just has some of that good ol’ bias. “Crash”, the C-word, was once again splattered across the topic lines of many forums and financial groups. You would think after what we went through this year at the March bottom, and last year in June, people would learn to at least give it more than a week before labeling the move.
Most know that my thought has been that this market won’t stop moving up until it takes out every last bear. The chart below of the ISEE proved that the option player was buying puts on Thursday with both hands. It was posted in the chatroom on Thursday’s decline showing that we were spiking to levels not since the March lows. The market is made of fear and greed and boy were they both flying this week!
So, could we have bottomed in a 4th wave or be bottoming in something of larger degree? Fourth waves are characterized by "surprising disappointment" and often terminate near the previous fourth wave of lesser degree or the second wave of an extended fifth in the preceding upleg. This week's drop qualifies on all counts. We originally had been looking for a pullback into the 1485 area since the character of the preceding advance suggested a deep fourth wave decline and that's what we got. Judging by put/call action and the ISEE chart above, the drop was enough to convince most that they should now play the market from the short side. We were starting to become frustrated about not getting the pullback for weeks only to realize that it used our exact June 1st turn date to start the decline. Not only the exact date, but also right into a perfect target. Readers will remember this chart below that we used to trade into the target area last week.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1234.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Wed Jun 27, 2007 8:19 pm Post subject: Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis: Too Many |
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By: Dominick
After calling the market perfectly from the June 2006 low all the way to the June 1 st 2007 turn, right down to the exact date, I could just step back and say the top is in and that I told you first. Unfortunately, I have too much reason to believe the ingredients for a perfect top are not yet in the mix but still out in front of us to simply ignore it and walk away. As of this weekend the confirmation needed isn't there. If it appears early next week I will be fast to work on bearish patterns, but not until then.
Next week the markets could go down big and some would say I blew the call. Fair enough, I'm not writing a book or trying to become famous. I'm only trying to run my site as I want and teach traders things they never thought were possible. Maybe that's why my forum continues to grow rapidly, and why many members are making serious profits, or at least curbed the old bad habits that were really costing them.
As they know, a big part of improving your trading is asking yourself whether you're a trader, investor, or speculator. Maybe you just click “buy” and pray. The point is that your timeframe will have a big effect on the way you interpret a chart.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1358.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue Jul 03, 2007 8:27 pm Post subject: Stocks & Commodity Markets Technical Analysis: Secrets t |
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By: Dominick
Did you lose money last week while other traders used the market like a blank check? Did you give into the doom and gloom and short the opening Wednesday morning to just watch the market drain the cash out of your account? Did you make the same mistake during Friday's summer feast, just before the market recovered 13 points in 30 minutes?
If so, you'll be interested in learning the secrets to our success at TradingtheCharts.com, where the traders are unbiased and price action rules.
What do I mean by unbiased? It's a simple concept -- we don't marry long term outlooks or analyze markets based on what we need to see so we can realize profits on our positions. No, we just trust the market to always be right and listen to the setups the charts provide.
A biased trader probably saw every rally this week as a must sell. After all, look at all the bad news, from the Bear Sterns debacle to the end of the quarter and the foiled terrorist plot in London . But a bear market would have been down a lot more.
No, this market seems to escape the trap door no matter what's being thrown at it. Besides, are you trading Bear Sterns or the ES? I've posted a monthly chart of Bear Sterns for weeks now, long before last week's news got to your screen or on the tape. The chart was showing that some type of news was about to come out of it.
But since we are trading the S&P, I'd rather know where that's going, not Bear Sterns or the China ETF. Remember that low in March, when the blame was on China ? Take a look at that ETF now – it's screaming to all time new highs and not a peep from the trading community.
Beside the S&P, I, like many others, watch a variety of markets. Like the NDX. Remember that theory that the NDX leads? Even if you don't like the idea, would you agree that we couldn't have seen the NDX scream to new highs this past week as the S&P collapsed? OF COURSE NOT! Well, looking for the S&P Futures to break the 1490 area with the NDX in a w4 was expecting exactly that.
Even if you aren't a member and privy to our daily analysis of dozens of markets, real time trade-oriented chatroom, and proprietary trend cycle charts, many at least had access to the chart below through our “Chart of the Week” feature.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1414.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue Jul 17, 2007 2:06 am Post subject: Stock Market Update: Profit is the Only Real Portfolio Prote |
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