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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Fri Jan 18, 2008 3:44 am Post subject: US Recession Will Ultimately be More Severe than Current For |
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By: Bob_Bronson
Despite permabull hype, as reflected especially by many of Larry Kudlow's guests on CNBC, the second revision in 3Q GDP neither obviated nor postponed the persistently developing -- and very predictable -- recession.
Our stock market and economic cycle template, or SMECT model clearly illustrates the "perfect storm" of several business and economic cycles contracting simultaneously and suggesting, well in advance, that the oncoming recession will be more severe than average
We have also pointed out that GDP, which does not include crucial employment data, is not the best measure of the business cycle. The 87% of GDP that does reasonably reflect the true business cycle -- that is, Personal Consumption Expenditures plus Fixed Investment from the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) data -- adjusted for price inflation and population growth (i.e., per capita), reasonably reflects the true business cycle. The business cycle portion of the NIPA data has been contracting for the past eight quarters (see the narrow blue line in the first chart below).
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3319.html |
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