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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Sun Jan 06, 2008 11:46 am Post subject: FTSE 100 Index 2008 UK Stock Market Forecast 2008 |
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By: Nadeem_Walayat
Doom and Gloom pervades the UK economy as we enter into 2008, which is 'usually' an excellent atmosphere for stocks, especially if that doom and gloom to date has not resulted in anything other than corrections. Not even the crash in the financial sector that has seen many big banks fall by as much as 50% off their 2007 highs has managed to dent the FTSE 100 Index with barely registerable declines on the long-run FTSE 100 chart.
Speculation is rife of a high risk of a recession for the UK economy during 2008. However the last analysis in this current series for 2008 on UK GDP growth concluded with the opinion that despite early year weakness the UK economy will avoid a recession, this coupled with falling interest rates will be supportive of the UK stock market during 2008.
But firstly how did the FTSE 100 forecast for 2007 fare ?
Creating 12 month forward forecasts on traded markets are invariably difficult as unlike economic statistics which exhibit either monthly or quarterly changes, the stock markets involve some 250 data points of sentiment and trend building. The only way to handle this is to break down the trends into a series of impulse and corrective waves to carry the market in a particular direction into the year end. This trend is subject to certain assumptions, which last were that a. The FTSE would have another strong up year on the back of continuing healthy economic growth, and b. That the FTSE 100 would only revisit the 6000 level once during the year.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3195.html |
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