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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Sun May 13, 2007 12:51 am Post subject: Strategic Investing in Telecommunications, Utilities From 30 |
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Strategic Investing in Telecommunications, Utilities From 30,000 Feet Up
Earlier this week, I got a call from a reporter at a major newspaper, asking for my “view from 30,000 feet up” on the power industry. Big picture perspectives are most useful when they help us to see the forest as a whole, rather than just tree-by-tree. They're downright dangerous, however, when analysts fall in love with their prognostications.
In 2002, after 14 years of picking utility stocks, I wrote my first “30,000 feet up” book on the sector, “Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in Telecommunications, Utilities & Other Essential Services”. My timing could have been a lot better, as utilities were in the middle of their worst bear market since the early 1970s. And several of the executives I interviewed for the book have moved on to other lines of work.
I'm rather proud of how the book's main themes hang together. For one thing, the power utility industry--as well as water and communications--have continued to consolidate in pursuit of ever-improving economies of scale. Many of the transactions we've seen have been across borders.
My forecast for the ultimate dominance of the former Baby Bells has come true. Sector technologies that '90s analysts prophesied would turn things upside down have been co-opted and increased big company profits. I continue to follow the investment strategy rules, as I have for the past 20 plus years. And only one of the 41 “Model Portfolio” investments highlighted at the end of “Power Hungry” has proved to be a loser; it was a whopper, WORLDCOM.
I missed the boat on WorldCom largely because I thought it was building dominance, rather than cooking the books. But the book's biggest error was that I was too optimistic on the prospects for the deregulation of electricity. Retail competition, for example, has never caught on in most states, and several, like Virginia, have actually rolled back laws implementing it.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article978.html |
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