| |
Major Site Upgrade in Progress |
 |
|
 |
|
Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 12:58 am Post subject: UK strong house price growth signals further rises in intere |
 |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
UK strong house price growth signals further rises in interest rates
Hometrack revealed house prices in the UK surged in March to take the annualised rate to 6.7% from 6.4%. With the likelyhood of further strengthening as the market moves into a traditionally stronger housing market demand period going into the summer. London experienced an even stronger growth of 1.8% due to the boom in the financial services industry, which provided a lift to the overall UK figures.
This confirms my expectations of further interest rate rises during 2007 towards our target of 5.75%, (UK Interest Rates could rise to 5.75% in 2007) - Nov 06. The expectation is now for the next rise in interest rates to come in a little over a months time at the May 2007 Bank of England MPC Meeting. A rise in April is highly unlikely, given the soft tone amongst the MPC members who voted 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold, with 1 vote for a cut.
Additionally my house price target remains for house price growth of between 5% to 7% during 2007, as I expect a cooling towards the end of the year, which 'should' reduce the annualised house price growth from a summer peak.UK House Prices continue to Rise whilst the US Housing Market Slumps. However, the risks to this are the continuing excessive growth in London, pulling the whole UK market beyond the upper range of 7%.
The continuing meltdown in the US housing market has failed to impact on the UK housing market, this lack of impact is expected to continue into late 2007, after which the reaction of the financial markets to the possibility of the US going into recession will start to bare down on the UK economy and the UK housing market. The tendency is for the housing market to act as a leading indicator of a significant slowdown in the UK economy going into 2008, much as the slump in the US housing market is signaling a recession in the US.
Despite the anticipated economic slowdown, inflationary pressures at that time may not allow significant cuts in UK interests, as the inflationary climate gathers strength across the world economies due to excessive money supply growth in recent years which is set to continue into 2008. So this time the situation may more resemble the 1970's rather than 2001.
One clear sign of this anticipated scenerio, would be for crude oil to once more trend higher towards a new high, the possibility of this grows as demand grows and supply tightens due to a number of factors including China cutting back on Oil exports, declining yields from oil producing nations such as Britain and the Norway, in adequate investment in oil infrastructure as in Iran and Mexico, and the failure to develop Iraqi oil output. And above all, the risks of a confrontation with Iran, the threat of which may drag on for several years, which would tend to put upward pressure on crude oil prices and thus inflation.
By Nadeem Walayat
(c) MarketOracle.co.uk 2007
The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We aim to cut through the noise cluttering traditional sources of market analysis and get to the key points of where the markets are at and where they are expected to move to next ! http://www.marketoracle.co.uk
This article maybe reproduced if reprinted in its entirety with links to http://www.marketoracle.co.uk |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
Online Finance Tools & Calculators |
 |
| Credit Score Calculator |
Easy to use online Credit Scoring tool - Calculate your credit score now online for FREE ! using the Moneyforums.co.uk credit scoring tool. Also TEN Tips on improving and mainting a good credit rating ! |
|
| Quick Health Calculator |
Easy to use quick health calculator to help you get started on the path to fitness. Calculates your body mass index (BMI). |
|
| "When will I die ?" Calculator |
Calculate when will you die based on your current life style and then more importantly what you can do about extending your lifespan ! |
|
| Mortgage Calculator |
Easy to use online Mortgage calculator tool - Calculate how long it will take to pay off your mortgage and what your monthly repayments will be as well as interest charged per month per each year. |
|
| Savings Calculator |
Use the flexible savings calculator to estimate the amount of interest you would earn given a level of monthly savings, with many optional settings. |
|
| UK Tax Calculator |
Check your tax and NI liability using this easy to use online tool. Outputs, Tax, Ni, Net pay and gross pay on an annual, monthly and weekly basis, also estimates your tax burden and the number of days a year you work for the tax man ! Plus lots of tax saving tips. |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Money
Forums Guides |
|
| Credit
Card Stoozing |
The
following guide explains the basics of credit
card stoozing in a step by step basis. |
|
| Discount
Vouchers |
Online
discount vouchers giving upto
50% off in stores such as Dixons,
Tesco, Avon, Currys, Boden and more. Many
of the vouchers are time limited - So check
back regularly |
|
| Money
Saving Guide |
Guide
to saving money on household bills & personal
finances - Start saving thousands of £'s
every year TODAY ! |
|
| Savings
Tree |
A
guide to Savings Accounts, from Cash ISA's to
Regular Savers to Premium Bonds, all explained
in an easy to understand manner. |
|
|
Users
Groups | Profile
| Messages
| FAQ | Sponsers
& Links | Member
list | Recommend this site | Top Money Saving Sitee
© 2004 - 2007 Moneyforums.co.uk / Market Oracle Ltd - Asserts copyright on all topics & posts made on this site. Moneyforums are open forums, and thus posts are NOT endorsed by Moneyforums.co.uk / Market Oracle Ltd . Any and all information provided within the Website is for general information purposes only and nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or other advice. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you purchase any product and/or service. All tools and guides are provided as is for general information purposes only.
|
|
|
