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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Sat Mar 24, 2007 6:22 am Post subject: UK: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Ease But Don't Rule Out |
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UK: Interest Rate Hike Expectations Ease But Don't Rule Out Further Tightening
The minutes of the March 8 meeting of the Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have caught the markets by surprise, with an unexpectedly-dovish 8-1 vote to leave rates on hold, and the one dissenter a vote for a rate cut. The members noted that "the upside risk to inflation from wage growth might have started to diminish," and "financial market volatility added to the case for holding rates." So, can we assume that the current 5.25% repo rate is the peak? Not yet.
Yesterday came the news that the EU-harmonized rate of inflation , HICP, hit 2.8% in February, up from 2.7% in January - still far above the BoE's 2.0% medium-term target. The Retail Prices Index (RPI), the basis for most wage negotiations, climbed to a 16-year high of 4.6%.
Last week, the BoE's quarterly inflation survey found that expectations for the rate of inflation over the coming year were unchanged from the November survey, at 2.7%. While this remains well above the BoE's 2.0% target, the stabilization of expectations is likely to be comforting to the members of the MPC. However, with the RPI at a 16-year high, there is still a risk to inflation expectations.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article582.html |
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