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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 2:56 pm Post subject: US Dollar Index Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast |
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Today's report is about analysis of the US Dollar Index. Fibonacci time extensions of two different waves are shown midway on the chart and Fib price retracements of the most recent decline from November till December shown on the right hand side. The 61.8% retracement level was strong resistance, which sent the index down to test the 38.2% retracement level. The lower 55 MA Bollinger band is rising, with the upper 55 MA BB declining.
This suggests we can expect to see the USD chopping sideways for 5-10 days before a sharp decline occurs. There is a Fib cluster around March 20 th , suggestive that a bottom in the USD looms around this date. Short-term stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, with another 3-4 weeks at a minimum before a bottom is in place.
Figure 1
A Babson channel was drawn to contain the USD footprint of the decline since December 2005. The upper channel line has proven to be incredibly strong resistance, with the lower trend line some 10-15 points below the current level. Moving averages are in bearish alignment (200 day MA above the 155 day MA above the 50 day MA), with the 50 day MA acting as resistance at 84.384. Full stochastics have the %K beneath the %D, with another 4-6 weeks at a minimum before a bottom is put in place.
Figure 2
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article424.html |
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