Major Site Upgrade in Progress |
 |
|
 |
|
Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
|
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
 Posted: Sun Feb 18, 2007 3:27 pm Post subject: US Recession - Gold, Housing and the Inverted Yield Curve |
 |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions.
I am often asked whether a yield curve causes a recession. The (very) short answer is no. But then what is the mechanism that makes it so reliable? Is it different this time? How can we believe that the economy has a few bumps in its future when things are just so darn good? We ponder these questions in today's letter, as well as peruse the "shocking" housing data released this morning, and look at a very interesting chart on gold.
But first, let me call to your attention the official announcement of my 4th annual Strategic Investment Conference, co-sponsored by my friends at Altegris Investments. The conference will be April 19-21 in La Jolla, California. The line-up of speakers is quite impressive. Richard Russell, of course, will be there. It is one of his few live speaking engagements of the year, as he does not travel to speak. So we bring the mountain to Mohammed, so to speak. Dennis Gartman will regale us with his stories and wisdom. Dr. Woody Brock, one of the world's better economists and frequent speaker at Davos will be there. George Friedman of Stratfor (what a treat!) will give us his views on how the world will develop politically over the coming years, and hopefully give us a preview of his forthcoming book. Louis-Vincent Gave will kick things off. Rob Arnott will follow. And Dr. Mike Roizen ( YOU: The Owner's Manual ) will give us the latest on how to stay healthy, live longer, and enjoy our lives. And your humble analyst, of course.
In designing a conference, I put together a group of speakers that I want to hear and learn from. Many conferences have one or two headliners and then fill in the rest of the time. This conference has nothing but headliners. Every speech is a keynote. And there are plenty of chances to meet the speakers personally.
If you are looking for one place to come and learn about what the economic climate may be for the next few years, and for ways to both protect and take advantage of an ever-changing world, then you should consider this conference. No booths, no vendors, just investors like you and experts.
But it is more than just a theoretical event - investors will also have the chance to learn about the many different hedge fund strategies and options that are appropriate for their particular risk tolerance, investment goals, and investment experience, in the many manager sessions during the conference.
I find first-class speakers, but my partners at Altegris run a first-class show. Everything is top-notch. Most attendees tell me that this conference is the best they have even been to, and we make a point of trying to make it better each year. The price you pay for the conference has been substantially less than what it costs us to do, so you get value! And the Hyatt Aventine in La Jolla is a great venue with a wonderful spa. And the best part of the weekend is that you get to meet some really great new people.
The bad news is that because of the regulatory requirements to which we are subject, we have to limit attendees to those who have a liquid net worth of $2,000,000 or more. Thus, the conference is by invitation only, as we are required to talk with every attendee prior to their coming to the conference. I wish it were different, but we are very serious about playing by the rules.
If you have already signed up for my Accredited Investor E-letter, your invitation should have been sent to you this week. If you missed it, drop me a note and I will make sure you get one, or you can go to https://hedge-fund-conference.com/invitation.aspx to learn more about the conference and then scroll down to register.
If you have not signed up for my free bi-monthly (more or less) e-letter on alternatives, you can go to www.accreditedinvestor.ws and sign up, as well as read about the risks involved with hedge funds. If you are interested in going to the conference, the following link will take you to the registration page for the letter, and I will make sure someone promptly follows up with you to get you an invitation.
If you have any questions, get back to me and we will make sure they get answered. I hope to see you there. (In this regard, I am president and a registered representative of Millennium Wave Securities, LLC, member NASD.) 7
An Impressive Bull Run in Gold
One of the more frustrating things about being an analyst is to make a call and then wait for what may be a long time before the market decides to approve of your intuitive foresight ... or brutally punish your hubris. But it comes with the territory, so if you have been doing this long enough, you eventually develop some emotional calluses as well as a certain quantum of humility. Some of the more dangerous characters in this business are those who refuse to acknowledge they can be wrong and demand the market confirm their superior wisdom. A good investment or great market call is evidence of their genius, but if something negative happens, it is simply bad luck or an intransigent market. Those who ride a bull need to realize that it is easy to get thrown off. Risk controls are the mantra of the better players in the investment game.
I find the better analysts that I meet have a very refined sense of their potential for being wrong at any given time. In fact, the better they are, the more humility they seem to exhibit. They may pound the table when espousing their point of view, and argue with great and laudable vigor; but they constantly keep an open mind, looking to learn and grow with each missed call.
Thus, when you do make a call and the market decides to confirm your wisdom fairly quickly, it is an easy thing to remember. It also is a reminder that luck is a sometimes good thing. I became bearish on the dollar and thus bullish on gold in early 2002. And it has been an impressive bull run.
Most of my bullishness about gold has been admittedly centered in my still long-term bearish posture on the US dollar. And in the beginning of the run, that was the correct position. But of late, gold has been in a bull market across the board. My good friend and South African partner Prieur du Plessis sent me the following graph and table, following a discussion on gold. While we are familiar with the rise in gold in terms of the dollar, it is instructive to look at how it has done in other major currencies (the euro, pound, yen and Swiss franc):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article363.html |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Quinn
Saving Enthusiast
Joined: 06 Feb 2005
Posts: 181
Cash Points ££ 2817.02
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 6:15 pm Post subject: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| From what I can see, inflation is the problem in the USA and its going to drive interest rates higher whilst the economy slows |
|
|
|
|
|
|
 |
Online Finance Tools & Calculators |
 |
| Credit Score Calculator |
Easy to use online Credit Scoring tool - Calculate your credit score now online for FREE ! using the Moneyforums.co.uk credit scoring tool. Also TEN Tips on improving and mainting a good credit rating ! |
|
| Quick Health Calculator |
Easy to use quick health calculator to help you get started on the path to fitness. Calculates your body mass index (BMI). |
|
| "When will I die ?" Calculator |
Calculate when will you die based on your current life style and then more importantly what you can do about extending your lifespan ! |
|
| Mortgage Calculator |
Easy to use online Mortgage calculator tool - Calculate how long it will take to pay off your mortgage and what your monthly repayments will be as well as interest charged per month per each year. |
|
| Savings Calculator |
Use the flexible savings calculator to estimate the amount of interest you would earn given a level of monthly savings, with many optional settings. |
|
| UK Tax Calculator |
Check your tax and NI liability using this easy to use online tool. Outputs, Tax, Ni, Net pay and gross pay on an annual, monthly and weekly basis, also estimates your tax burden and the number of days a year you work for the tax man ! Plus lots of tax saving tips. |
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Money
Forums Guides |
|
| Credit
Card Stoozing |
The
following guide explains the basics of credit
card stoozing in a step by step basis. |
|
| Discount
Vouchers |
Online
discount vouchers giving upto
50% off in stores such as Dixons,
Tesco, Avon, Currys, Boden and more. Many
of the vouchers are time limited - So check
back regularly |
|
| Money
Saving Guide |
Guide
to saving money on household bills & personal
finances - Start saving thousands of £'s
every year TODAY ! |
|
| Savings
Tree |
A
guide to Savings Accounts, from Cash ISA's to
Regular Savers to Premium Bonds, all explained
in an easy to understand manner. |
|
|
Users
Groups | Profile
| Messages
| FAQ | Sponsers
& Links | Member
list | Recommend this site | Top Money Saving Sitee
© 2004 - 2007 Moneyforums.co.uk / Market Oracle Ltd - Asserts copyright on all topics & posts made on this site. Moneyforums are open forums, and thus posts are NOT endorsed by Moneyforums.co.uk / Market Oracle Ltd . Any and all information provided within the Website is for general information purposes only and nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or other advice. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you purchase any product and/or service. All tools and guides are provided as is for general information purposes only.
|
|
