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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 1:18 pm Post subject: Gold, Google Hits and Market Tops |
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It has been a while since I last published how our gold and silver sentiment indicator has been getting on. To remind readers, for the past year now I have been collecting the number of Google hits on key phrases relevant to the gold bull market. Care has been taken that one does not end up with hits related to the latest fashions in gold jewelry or what the latest theories are on some gold artifacts found in archaeological digs. We are only interested in the gold bull market and I hope the hits collected over that time reflect that.
Now we are at an interesting juncture in the world of gold and Google. Have a look at the chart below which superimposes the daily gold price upon the number of Google hits.
Not unsurprisingly, the number of Google hits follows the gold price. That is basic investor psychology, as the price of an asset becomes more attractive, more people want to know about it and that is reflected in Internet search engines such as Google.
However, for this chart we are at a crossroads. For the whole year, this chart has moved in a range between 400,000 and 850,000 Google hits. But now and suddenly, the indicator has surged from just under 500,000 to leap to a high of 849,000 as of today.
The interesting thing is that this 850,000 level has proved to be a level of resistance to gold prices in the last year. Three times gold prices have risen and the corresponding Google hits have approached this level only to bounce off it and also be matched by a drop in gold prices.
What is going to happen this time? Either the indicator is going to bounce off again or it will be fourth time lucky as it surges on and signals the resumption of the gold bull market. That is why I suggested we are at an interesting juncture.
Of course, what is bullish for gold is bullish for silver but silver sometimes has a habit of lagging gold as investors wait to see how gold behaves. But if we exceed 900,000 hits on this graph, it is another nail in the price correction story.
Meanwhile, our new long term indicator for silver and gold, the Silver Leverage Indicator (or SLI), continues to trace its own unique path. I reproduce the graphs again to remind you of its predictive power.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article351.html |
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