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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Sun Dec 17, 2006 4:59 pm Post subject: The VIX forecasts a sharp drop in Share prices in January 07 |
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Firstly What is the VIX ? This is an index of implied volatility of the Chicago Board Options on the S&P 500 stock index, The exchange calculates the implied volatility of eight at-the-money or near-the-money strikes (both puts and calls) with a weighted average time to maturity of 30 days. Basically the VIX is a measure of fear in the market. It rises when investors are fearful, as more options are bought, and falls when investors feel less fearful, so buy less options to manage their stock market risk.
The VIX for some months has been trading at and to new multi-year lows, having hit a 13 year low on Friday, whilst the Dow jones powers to new highs and other stock market indices trading at 5 year highs. This low level of fear indicates high complacency amongst investors and is highly indicative of greater future volatility, which suggests a sharp fall in stock prices. A lot of this complacency is due to December historically being seen as a positive month for the stock markets, and to date that is exactly the script the Dow Jones, S&P and FTSE 100 index have been following
Full article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article168.html |
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Roberts
Beginning Saver
Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 25
Cash Points ££ 464.36
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| Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2007 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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The stock market fell a lot yesterday, so looks like it may actually happen !
I look forward to the fall  |
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