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Shahla Money Managing Guru

Joined: 13 Nov 2004 Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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Posted: Wed Dec 26, 2007 2:19 am Post subject: UK Commercial Properties Crash Looms as Property Investment |
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By: Nadeem_Walayat
Britain's fourth biggest insurer, Friends Provident froze its Property Fund on Thursday, thereby denying over 110,000 investors the ability to liquidate their investments. The property fund has an estimated value of more than £1.2 billion or $2.5 billions. The insurance company stated that investors will not be able to gain access to their funds for a period of six months due to a sharp fall in its cash reserves as investors took fright from the collapsing UK housing market, both residential and commercial.
Over the last 20 years, I have repeatedly warned of the problems faced by unit trust holders in that in times of difficulty they may find themselves locked into depreciating assets without the ability to liquidate investments.
The first time I experienced this was during the 1987 crash, when I did hold unit trusts and the brokers would fail to pick up the phone, this has been reiterated throughout many articles regarding how to invest in funds, and that my preferred route has always been to invest in investment trusts rather than unit trusts.
Back on 22nd August 07, I specifically warned in the article - UK Housing Market Crash of 2007 - 2008 and Steps to Protect Your Wealth , The stock market is expected to be volatile since we are moving into a new risk climate. Despite a high probability of further sharp falls, and even a crash, there are plenty of long-term plays out there especially in the big cap oil sector. I would also look at bargain hunting metals and mining on further sharp falls or a crash. Similarly for the utilities sectors such as Water. The best plays are probably via investment trusts, of which there are many. I favor investment trusts over unit trusts as they are traded on the stock exchanges exactly as any stock is. Whereas, as I recall in previous financial crisis you may find the phone off the hook on the other end of the line when you try to call to buy or sell unit trust positions.
The reason for the freeze is clear, in that once the cash reserves have been consumed the funds would be forced to liquidate assets, which means sell properties. Do not imagine for a moment that the problem is restricted to Friends Provident. This applies to ALL commercial property funds that are seeing the smart money leaving the scene before the avalanche of redemptions begins resulting in sector wide freeze of unit trusts.
UK Housing Crash
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3162.html |
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