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Nationwide - UK House Prices Fall by 0.8% In November

 
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Shahla
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2007 3:18 am    Post subject: Nationwide - UK House Prices Fall by 0.8% In November Reply with quote
By: Nationwide



House prices fell by 0.8% in November, bringing the annual rate of increase down to 6.9%
Sentiment in the market has weakened, but can be volatile
Uncertainties remain, but underlying fundamentals continue to be supportive
Introduction of final phase of HIPs may reduce available housing supply in the short term

Headlines November 2007 October 2007
Monthly index * Q1 '93 = 100 369.0 371.9
Monthly change* -0.8% 1.1%
Annual change 6.9% 9.7%
Average price £184,099 £186,044

* seasonally adjusted

Commenting on the figures Fionnuala Earley, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said: “House prices fell by 0.8% in November, reversing October’s surprisingly strong performance. This brings annual house price growth down to 6.9%. This is back in line with the softening trend we have seen in the second half of the year and is consistent with our forecast of house price growth of 5-8% in 2007. The 0.8% monthly fall is the first since February 2006 and the largest monthly fall since June 1995. However, monthly data can be volatile and the sharp fall this month is partly a reflection of the strength recorded last month and in November last year. A better picture of the underlying trend is captured in the three-monthly growth rate. This too fell back into line with its softening trend in November, returning to 1.5% from the 1.8% recorded in October. The price of a typical house in the UK is now £184,099, almost £12,000 more than this time last year."

Market now responding to weaker drivers
“November’s data confirms that the housing market is indeed cooling in line with the weakening in housing market drivers. Poor affordability, weaker house price growth expectations and the effect of earlier increases in interest rates have all affected demand in the market. House purchase approvals, a good barometer of real market demand have weakened from a peak of 128,000 a month in the final months of 2006 to 102,000 in September. We expect this activity to continue to fall back throughout the rest of this year, and into the next.

Sentiment is changeable…
“Housing market sentiment can itself be an important driver of the housing market, and at this point in the cycle it can easily swing on the back of every new morsel of data reported. There is a plethora of housing market indicators and looking at the headline figures alone can sometimes be confusing. Indeed at this point in the housing market cycle there can even seem to be conflicting messages in consecutive months of the same series. With sentiment so important to the housing market, an oversimplification of the headline data can have real effects. This highlights the importance of looking at overall trends, rather than focusing on one month’s data in isolation and more importantly, examining the underlying fundamentals. …

…and can be sensitive to interpretation of data
“New data from derivative trading in the City1 shows that within the space of one month expectations of house price growth over the next year have fallen from -2% to -7% without there being any really significant change in the underlying housing market conditions during the period. This rapid swing is likely to be a reflection of current financial market uncertainties and could be distorted by speculative or hedging activity, but it illustrates how quickly the mood can change and thus the importance of looking carefully at the real message key data is presenting.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2931.html
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