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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2007 1:19 am Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report |
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The week started on a downer and ended on a downer. Gold is trying to recover from the plunge but is finding difficulty. Which way next? Let's see.
Before going into the regular routine I though I would once more say a few words about MOMENTUM as so many are really not that sure what it is or what to do with it.
MOMENTUM (MOM)
When hearing or reading a commentator (or analyst) mention the word “momentum” I can say with all certainty that most readers do not REALLY know what the commentator is really referring to. The commentator in all likelihood doesn't really know himself but it sounds intelligent. Could it be earnings momentum or sales momentum or what have you momentum? Unless the commentator defines in simple terms what he is referring to, who knows, really?
When I mention momentum, I am referring to the momentum (or strength) of the recent price activity compared to the price activity over some specified period of time. In my commentaries I favor the use of an indicator called the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Readers will recall my use of a 50 Day RSI or a 30 Week RSI or others. These reflect the strength of recent price activity versus the activity over the previous 50 days or 30 weeks, etc. Of these two one is my momentum indicator reflecting strength for the intermediate term period and the other is for a long term period. By adjusting the number of days or weeks one can develop a momentum indicator for any time period one may wish.
But SO WHAT, you may ask. What good is it?
Momentum indicators (and there are literally dozens of them) are used by myself as early warning indicators of potential trend change. The ONLY reason one develops a momentum indicator, in my view, is as an indicator to provide this early warning so that one may be on guard for a change in price direction. They can also confirm that a change of trend, determined by some other indicator such as the moving average indicator, has actually occurred.
One would not act on the message of the momentum indicator alone but would use it in combination with other indicators for a consensus before acting. Although there are always exceptions to the rule one would expect the strength of recent price activity to show up first in short term momentum indicators and then progressively to longer term indicators. As mentioned, they provide advance warning of potential price change. Price trends do not normally turn on a dime. They get progressively weaker and weaker (or stronger and stronger) over time before reversing. This is generally true at market tops and market bottoms.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article501.html
Last edited by Shahla on Mon Oct 15, 2007 1:10 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2007 8:34 pm Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 1st April |
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Other than Monday, the week's daily gold trading activity closed either lower on the day or at the low of its daily trading range. Not activity fraught with confidence.
TECHNICAL RATING (RATE)
In my tables of technical information and ratings (at the end of these commentaries) is a column called RATE for Technical Rating. Based upon the technical information in the table I had developed a program that then took this information and tried to determine if the stock or Index is technically bullish (POS), bearish (NEG) or neutral (N).
In addition, I added two extra ratings, one that is better than neutral but not yet bullish (+ N) and one that is worse than neutral but not yet bearish (- N). Now as we all know, being adults and all that, nothing is perfect and these ratings are not claimed to be perfect. However, I have been using them for some 15 years and they are as good as most ratings you will find, better than some and no doubt not as good as some. As a general rule one should expect that the ratings turn first in the shorter term period and then progressively in the longer periods.
One should never go by simple ratings alone in their decision making. One should also take a look at a chart and understand simple support/resistance and trend line techniques to confirm the ratings. Too often mechanically developed ratings are prone to being “whipsawed” and a look at a simple chart might just avoid that. You need not be a technical expert but should have some basic simple knowledge of technical concepts.
Very often in these commentaries I may differ with the ratings as shown in the tables. Again, that is because of the mechanical nature of the ratings and most likely due to the use of slightly different indicators than those in the table. Such difference of opinion should normally not last long. When a trend takes hold, both the commentary and ratings should be in concert.
Well I guess that just about covers the information one will find in the tables at the end of this commentary as well as the Global Indices tables one can find in my home web site. Now, on with the regular analysis.
GOLD
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article666.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue Apr 17, 2007 8:03 pm Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report |
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couple of ups and downs during the week but mostly ups. Are we heading for new highs ahead?
GOLD : LONG TERM
The Market Oracle and Elliott Wave International present
Free Access April 18th to 25th
After a bit of a bummer during 2006 the long term P&F chart is once more starting to give the impression of good things to come. The projection for this move, at the initial break-out, was to the $780 level and now with the subsequent move we have a further projection to $915 ($970 if I use a $10 unit, 3 unit reversal chart). There are hurdles along the way, such as the previous 2006 high at $720 but we'll take them as they come. For now we should be smiling that things are looking better than they have for some time now. The projections suggest new ALL TIME HIGHS ahead for gold. Now let's keep our fingers crossed that we do not get any serious surprises to ruin the scenario. Let's see what the daily long term candlestick chart has to say.
Probably the most important basic indicator is the trend one, using the moving average. The recent price action continues above a positive sloping long term moving average line for a bullish trend indication. The action has remained inside that up trending channel previously shown (see intermediate term chart). The trend of the action remains towards the upper resistance trend line but it is still some distance away for the resistance. As for the price momentum (or strength), well that is still a question mark. Although the long term momentum indicator remains in the positive zone it has not yet shown any real strength in the resent price activity. The momentum indicator remains in a lateral trend more so than in an upward trend. There has been very little vertical % moves in this indicator for about 10 months now. I'm looking forward to some new strength here but remain a little cautious until such strength makes itself known. As for volume, well the cumulative volume indicator, the On-Balance Volume (OBV), is at new highs for a very positive indication. However, looking at the daily action versus the average volume over a long term period, the recent volume activity has been below the average for a cautionary reading. During most of last year the long term average of the daily volume activity has been in a downward trend. However, since the beginning of this year that changed and the long term average of daily activity has been rising. Even though the daily activity over the past week or so has been below the long term average this average is still in a rising mode so we might expect the volume to start perking up again any day.
All in all I am back to the BULLISH perspective on the long term.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article768.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Sun Apr 22, 2007 6:43 pm Post subject: Technical Analysis Report - Potential Double Top |
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Lots of speculation about the next great gold boom – or not ? My Composite Index of Precious Metals Indices shows a serious double top. Let's hope it's just a short term aberration.
COMPOSITE INDEX of PRECIOUS METALS INDICES
At the end of most of these commentaries you will find a table of Precious Metals Indices. The table includes the major North American precious metals Indices, the various FTSE Gold Mines Indices, the seven Merv's Indices as well as gold, silver and the US$. Subscribers to my weekly precious metals service get the full expanded table along with a weekly Composite Index chart that shows the average weekly performance of all of these Indices. This week the chart may be giving a very serious warning so I thought I'd show it to all my commentary readers.
The chart has two interesting features. First is the potential double top pattern and the second is the negative divergence between the indicator (MACD) and the Index. Both of these are bearish warnings at this time. I don't plan to go into any detailed analysis of these features but will provide just a few quickie comments.
A double top is only a double top after the fact. Until then it is only a “potential”. For this to be a validated double top the Index would have to drop below the lows of last October. That is a long way of. This week we see the Index reacting lower from the double top high. That may or may not continue, only time will tell. One should, however, be on guard for a reversal of trend but no need to panic yet.
As for the negative divergence in the indicator, this too is just a warning. All of my price momentum indicators are giving me a similar picture to that of the MACD. What this is telling us is that at this period in time the strength of the recent upside Index action has not been nearly as strong as what it was in early 2006. The Index may still go a lot higher, it often does in this weakened condition but the odds are that there is a top ahead whereby the weakened Index will not be able to over come – UNLESS the Index gets a second wind and sails to new highs on improving strength. Again, one should be on guard for a reversal but not to panic yet.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article823.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Sat May 05, 2007 1:35 am Post subject: Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 29h April 2007 |
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Time to start wondering if this is the start of a new bear or just a normal correction after a several week advance. There are analysts on both sides.
GOLD : LONG TERM
That Merv's Composite Index of Precious Metals Indices shown last week must be on to something. The initial reaction from a previous high last week, making a potential double top, accelerated this week. It's still in a “no panic yet” zone but another week or two of this kind of action and who knows?
The long term P&F chart hasn't budget for two weeks now so I'll leave comments on it when something happens.
As for the bar (or candlestick) chart and the normal indicators, the reversal this past week is only a blip on the long term chart. Nothing to worry about – yet. However, one never knows when one of these blips just does not stop and becomes something more serious, so caution is always warranted.
As the chart shows, the action is still taking place well above a positively sloping long term moving average line with a long term momentum indicator that is still in its positive zone. The momentum has stayed positive throughout the past several months of questionable market direction. Since the bottom last October, while the price has had a nice run the momentum has not. It remained positive but only slightly so. The price has been approaching its previous high but the momentum has been far, far below its respective high. This negative divergence warning has to be corrected by either the price reversing or the momentum perking up. It looks like the price may be the one reversing but let's give it a little more time. Although we did have a negative week this action does not yet cause one to turn negative, long term wise. The indicators remain BULLISH.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article887.html |
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Sarah
Money Manager
Joined: 16 Jul 2004
Posts: 831
Cash Points ££ 12024.38
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| Posted: Tue May 08, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject: Silver Technical Analysis Report - 7th May 2007 |
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Gold just can't seem to make up its mind where it wants to go. I'll tell it – GO HIGHER – but will it listen?
GOLD
Since last showing the long term P&F chart in the 13 April 2007 commentary nothing has changed. No new X to suggest a further advance and no O s to indicate a reversal of direction. This either shows that from a long term perspective gold has reached somewhat of a stalemate or that the latest P&F unit criteria was too large. With $15 units and a 2 unit reversal criteria gold has a $45 range within which to move without affecting the P&F . This is what it has been doing for the past three weeks now. I don't expect this stalemate to last too much longer, but who knows?
As for the usual suspects, the week's action in gold all took place above its long term moving average line and the line slope is still positive. The action continues to take place inside that up trending channel shown last week (and below) and is expected to remain inside the channel for some time yet, unless we have some real vicious moves. As for momentum, that's the real cautionary indicator. First, the various price momentum (strength) indicators that I look at are all in their positive zones and will remain so for at least a few weeks. However, the trend of these indicators is troubling. A year ago with the price of gold at almost the same level as today the long term RSI was at the 76% level.
Today, the RSI is at 58%, much lower. My own Price Oscillator is even worse. Last year it was at the 7% mark and now only at the 2.5% mark. Although the absolute values may not mean much to most observers the difference in the values, with price at about the same level, is disturbing. Since late last year the slope of the momentum indicators has become very weak. Although still sloping upwards the magnitude of the slope suggests a weak underlying price strength. Looking at the various stock Indices the momentum indicators are even weaker. See the appropriate sections later in the commentary.
I must still go with the indicators and consider the long term as BULLISH but one must remain on the watch for a possible reversal ahead.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article931.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Tue May 15, 2007 11:14 pm Post subject: Technically Precious with Merv |
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It looked like gold just fell off the cliff on Thursday. On the two previous occasions that gold took such a fall we had a good several week rally within a day or two after. Are we getting one again?
GOLD : LONG TERM
Still no movement in the long term P&F chart despite the plunge on Thursday. So we wait another week before reviewing the chart.
As for the usual long term indicators, the action is still comfortably above its long term moving average line with the line continuing to point upward. Momentum is still far enough away from its neutral line that it would take at least a few weeks of negative action to get it below the line. As for the volume indicator, it just crossed below its long term trigger line on Thursday but has probably bounced back above the line on Friday, although I do not have the Friday data yet. The trigger line is still pointing upward so volume has not collapsed yet.
On the long term we have not yet reversed our BULLISH rating but are getting more and more concerned that such rating is destined for a reversal soon.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article989.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Sun May 20, 2007 6:20 pm Post subject: Report - 20th May 2007 - Technically Precious with Merv |
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Wednesday was a decisive downside break below a 7 month up trend line. Is this the start of a new BEAR or is it just a continuation of a wide year long lateral trend?
SOME SURPRISING STATISTICS
This past Wednesday I had the pleasure of making a telecom presentation to the Calgary Chapter of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. The Topic was “GOLD – Invest/Speculate/Gamble, Decisions, Decisions”. I wouldn't go into the presentation here but I thought that you might be interested in some of the statistics that I had come up with in the process of putting the presentation together. The statistics involved a review of the performance of various Gold Indices over the past 11 years, encompassing one major bear and one major bull market. The Indices reviewed were grouped into their “quality” sectors of QUALITY, SPECULATIVE and GAMBLING. These were:
QUALITY INDICES: PHLX Gold & Silver Sector Index , Merv's Qual-Gold Index
SPECULATIVE INDICES: AMEX Gold BUGS Index , Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index , Merv's Spec-Gold Index
GAMBLING INDEX: Merv's Gamb-Gold Index
It should be noted that the Merv's Gamb-Gold Index was developed in the year 2000 and therefore data during the bear market of 1996 to 1998/2000 was unavailable (but is thought to be similar to the performance of the Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index). As we know, the PHLX and AMEX Indices are a function primarily of the largest few component stocks while the Merv's Indices are equal weight Indices reflecting the average performance of all component stocks.
Also noted is that the statistics are to the close of trading on Friday, 11 May 2007 .
Different time periods were reviewed during this 11 year period and similar statistics were shown for each comparison. I'll just give you some of the highlights.
BEAR MARKET LOSSES (from 1996 top to 1998/2000 low)
GOLD - 38.8%
QUALITY LOSSES: PHLX Gold & Silver Index - 72% , Merv's Qual-Gold Index - 68%
SPECULATIVE LOSSES: AMEX Gold BUGS Index - 83% , Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index - 63% , Merv's Spec-Gold Index - 79%
BULL MARKET GAINS (from 1998/2000 low to 11 May 2007 )
GOLD + 191%
QUALITY GAINS: PHLX Gold & Silver Index + 234% , Merv's Qual-Gold Index + 570%
SPECULATIVE GAINS: AMEX Gold BUGS Index + 821% , Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index + 6356% , Merv's Spec-Gold Index + 3810%
GAMBLING GAINS: Merv's Gamb-Gold Index + 7548%
As mentioned, looking at other shorter time periods we get similar results, losses about equal for all sectors but gains dramatically different. One last statistic:
BUY AND HOLD FOR LONG TERM (from top of Index in 1996 to 11 May 2007 )
QUALITY: PHLX Gold & Silver Sector Index loss of 8%
SPECULATIVE: Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index gain of 1957%
Now, I have a question for the “ buy quality and hold for the long term ” investor. If the bear market losses are about the same for quality stocks as they are for the speculative stocks, and if the gains are so much more dramatic in the speculative stocks versus the quality stocks during a bull market, WHY ARE YOU IN THE QUALITY STOCKS?
Of course, statistics are what one makes of them but I thought I'd just put these out there for information.
GOLD : LONG TERM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1042.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Sun May 27, 2007 11:39 pm Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 27th May |
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Gold just keeps moving one day up and another day down, but in the end, mostly down. Is there an end?
GOLD : LONG TERM
It's been some time since we had the long term P&F chart in view. Nothing much has happened since our last view but I thought that you might be forgetting what it looked like so here it is again. The last signal it gave us was a BULL signal when it broke the down trend line and then went through the $645 resistance (red lines) and hit $660. At that point it gave us a projection of $780 and then $915. With the latest activity those projections seem like pipe dreams but they are valid until otherwise nullified. To nullify, the P&F would have to reverse and per the present chart that would take a move to the $600 level, which would give us the breaking of an up trend line and a move below two previous lows (MY criteria for reversals). So, at this time the long term P&F chart still tells us we are in a long term BULL.
What about the normal indicators? Well, to start, the Friday close is sitting right on top of my long term moving average line and the line is still sloping upwards. Using the daily chart and indicators, the long term price momentum indicator is still in the positive territory but is weaker than in the past and is already below the level of the March lows. Its general trend is decidedly towards the down side so a crossing below the neutral line into the negative very soon cannot be overlooked. As for the volume indicator, it is heading lower confirming the price direction. The indicator is below its long term trigger line and the trigger has turned downward.
As the action continues to weaken I must continue to down grade my rating. For the long term I would rate the gold action as being NEUTRAL for now, heading towards the negative.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1104.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Mon Jun 04, 2007 5:06 am Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 3rd June |
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A bounce off the long term moving average line and it looks like more smiles ahead. What could go wrong? We'll soon know if anything.
GOLD: LONG TERM
The chart shows the bear and bull markets in gold during the past 11 years or so. Prior to 1996 gold was at $500 in late 1987 (remember THAT year?) and declined to the $330 level by early 1993. A small rally and a few years of lateral activity and we get to the 1996 top shown here. We are at levels that have only been exceeded for a very few weeks back in 1980. The all time high at that time was $875 but depends upon the data one uses for their information. This bull market is by far the strongest bull we have seen since gold moved from the $100 level in mid-1976 to its top at $875 in early 1980. This bull is tracing a trend much slower than the one in the late 1970's. The 1970's bull took only three and a half years to complete. This one is already at year 6 (or 8, depending upon which bottom one uses). To equal the same % gain of that earlier bull this bull would have to move well into the $2000 range. That would be a great move but here we take things one step at a time.
Nothing has changed in the long term P&F chart during the week so we are still in a long term P&F bull market with no immediate end in sight.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1171.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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| Posted: Mon Jun 11, 2007 7:04 pm Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - 10th June |
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WOW! Nibble, nibble, nibble then plunge, plunge. Now what should we expect? Five days of down side, one should expect a few up sides BUT would you put money on that?
GOLD : LONG TERM
A couple of scary days but we're still a long way away from going bearish on the long term P&F chart. That point is still the $600 level.
As for the normal indicators, Friday the price closed below my weighted long term moving average line although the line is still pointing gently higher. Most analysts use the simple moving average. The price is still above that moving average line but by less than $10. As for the price momentum, that continues to head towards its neutral line but not quite there yet. It is just about at the same level where it was during the $603 January low and zeroing in on its previous lowest low of the past year which was at the October low just before the latest series of rallies started. As for the volume action, the volume indicator is below its trigger line and the line has turned down.
Last week I went back into the bullish camp (from neutral the previous week) and I will remain BULLISH for at least another week. To turn bearish would require a shift in the moving average information and/or a serious drop in momentum.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article1233.html |
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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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