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Shahla
Money Managing Guru
Joined: 13 Nov 2004
Posts: 3324
Cash Points ££ 126163.28
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 Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:03 pm Post subject: US Recession in 2007 - Third Leg of the Bear Market Likely |
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As our clients know, we have been forecasting a very hard recession over the next few years. At the beginning of 2006, our analysis was viewed with skepticism, but as more data comes in from the recent performance of the economy, our forecast is becoming more probable.
Debt
One of our main arguments has been that U.S. consumers are holding unsustainable levels of debt. The chart below from Ian Gordon, from The Long Wave Analyst shows private debt levels to GDP overlaid with his interpretation of the Kondratieff Wave. Without giving a lengthy description of the Kondratieff Wave, let us just say that as interest rates fall, investors are willing to take on more debt. Much of this credit is spent or used to fuel asset bubbles. Eventually bubbles exhaust themselves and deflate assets but debt is still owed. Participants must default on their debts causing loss of faith in financial institutions and subsequent depression. As you can see debt is now 300% of GNP, much higher than in 1929.
Where Is the Debt Coming From?
In the chart below from Yardeni.com, U.S. consumers have been withdrawing money from their houses at record levels. Simultaneously, they have been saving less. The reliance on home equity extraction (increasing mortgage debt) to fuel the economy is similar to stock market investors in the 20's, who were borrowing money to invest in the stock market. As history has shown, once the speculation exhausts itself assets deflate, but the debt still has to be paid back. Unfortunately, the housing bubble has already started its descent.
U.S. Housing Problem
Looking at the U.S. Housing Price Index chart below, from Robert Schiller author of Irrational Exuberance , the forecast that housing prices could not continue its trajectory was not very difficult. This rise has been driven by speculation. So far we have seen the ascent. |
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