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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Wed Jan 31, 2007 5:20 am Post subject: Weekly Gold and Silver Technical Analysis Report - Caution |
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Only two up days with three down days but still ending on the plus side. Gold is up against a strong resistance barrier. Will it break through? Ah! The mysteries of life.
GOLD - LONG TERM
Well here we are with that long term P&F chart. As you can see gold is up against two previous attempts to breach the $645 level (requiring $660 per the P&F ). At the present time it's touch and go. I will be changing the contract month for obtaining my gold trading data from Feb to April. This will bring the break-out closer so we should be careful if we then get a very mild break-out. Wait for a move above the next level (requiring $690) to really confirm a break. Of course if the action does not break out anytime soon then the initial resistance becomes a valid break-out point. Should it break out soon then a P&F count would give us a projection to the $720 level, i.e. the previous top. The more positive break-out and projection would be that at $690 which would take us to at least the $915 area. For now, the last signal remains the bear signal of a few months back.
As for the usual suspects, the long term indicators and trend remain in what I would still call a neutral level. Although the past week's action has been above the long term moving average line that line, although sloping very slightly upwards, has been in a basic lateral trend weaving up and down with the volatility of the wide lateral price action. The same can be said about the momentum indicator. It has remained in the positive zone but has been moving in a basic lateral direction just above its neutral line. There is still no indication of a major STRONG move in progress. Although we have had some good volume days recently the volume indicator is really no different than the other indicators, sometimes positive and sometimes negative but with no real conviction. If I was to place any conviction on it, it would be slightly towards the negative although it has crossed its long term trigger line to the upside this past week.
On the long term I will remain as per last week, maintaining a bearish position but what may be a more appropriate neutral rating.
INTERMEDIATE TERM
The intermediate term P&F chart moved below two previous lows in early Jan for the first of my two events necessary to provide a reversal signal. It stopped just short of the other event, i.e. breaking below its up trend line. It bounced off the up trend line and is once more firmly in a congestion area but close to an upside break.
As for the usual indicators, the action during the past week continued above a positive sloping moving average line. Momentum continued in its neutral action not going anywhere in particular and the volume action was interesting. Here we have had a continued improving daily volume action but the indicator itself still was going no where. The volume seems to be dispersed between both up days and down days although the up days do have a mild advantage, not enough to make anything out of it, however.
I went neutral last week and will remain so this week. There is nothing in the on going action to get enthusiastic one way or the other, yet.
SHORT TERM
More - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article286.html |
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