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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Mon Jan 22, 2007 8:25 pm Post subject: Brazil the Next China Like Miracle |
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Just a few years ago, suppose you had known that China, a backward, deeply impoverished communist country, would quickly transform itself into the fastest-growing capitalist economy on the planet. And suppose you had invested $10,000 in the leading Chinese companies.
That single insight alone — plus a dose of standard due diligence — could have been sufficient to transform your initial investment into $50,000, $100,000, or as much as $200,000 today.
Even if you could go back just 19 months ... and even if you made no effort whatsoever to pick a better-than-average Chinese company ... your $10,000 invested in the Shanghai Composite Index would be worth $28,372 at the close of trading this past Friday.
Needless to say, you can't turn back the clock. But you can do the next best thing:
You can find a country that's almost as big as China ... boasts even more natural resources ... enjoys a broad, modern industrial base ... and is closer to the U.S. culturally, politically and geographically ...
but ...
is still on the launch pad, in the pre-take-off stage, giving new investors an opportunity to catch a ride without overpaying and without a long wait.
That country is Brazil.
Indeed, a few years ago, my staff and I looked at the world's four largest emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, and China (the BRIC countries).
We saw the amazing profit potential offered by their vast natural and human resources.
We knew that, despite serious social and political hurdles, they would start to grow by leaps and bounds.
And we picked the one that had the highest level of new investment pouring into the economy — from the government, from domestic enterprises and from foreign investors: China.
Sure enough, China took off. So did India and Russia. But Brazil, despite major fiscal improvements, lagged behind the other three.
Now, I believe that's about to change.
Hard to Imagine Brazil Growing Like China?
Then just look back to recent history: In the 1970s, Brazil was expanding at the China-like clip of about 9 percent. Each year, Brazil was boosting exports by approximately 20 percent. And within less than a decade, thousands of early investors became multi-millionaires.
But the party came to a premature end for one simple reason: Inflation.
The primary difference today: Brazil's inflation monster has been tamed ...
Twelve years ago, Brazil stopped rampant inflation in its tracks by introducing a new currency, the real.
Ten years ago, it passed a law preventing federal and local governments from spending beyond their means.
And starting four years ago, Brazil's President, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (“Lula”), transformed the country from one of the world's most fiscally shaky nations into a model for fiscal responsibility.
Lula was born in a dirt-poor family in one of the most godforsaken regions on Earth — the parched and semi-feudal northeast of Brazil. With his mother, sisters and brothers, he fled to the industrial state of São Paulo on the back of a truck. And five decades later, he was swept into the presidency with a landslide victory.
In his first term, which just ended ...
He reduced consumer price inflation from 12.5% in 2002 to under 3% in 2006.
Full Article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article245.html |
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