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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 8:02 pm Post subject: No Fed US Interest rate cut in sight ! |
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That Federal Reserve Board rate cut? The one Wall Street's been forecasting for months? The one that's supposedly right around the corner?
Forget about it!
The latest economic numbers say it ain't happening. The latest moves by foreign central bankers make it unlikely. And as far as I'm concerned, the Fed is pretty much treading water in an ongoing flood of easy money into the asset markets.
Unless there's some kind of spectacular financial blow-out, the Fed is out of the picture, and you should invest accordingly. More on what to do in a moment. First, let me tell you why ...
The Latest Economic Numbers Do Not Justify a Rate Hike
Right now, the U.S. economy is far from an economic dynamo. If you're looking for major growth, you'll have to go someplace else, like Asia.
However, the December growth numbers weren't totally weak. They put to rest the idea that we need some kind of emergency Fed intervention:
Industrial production rose 0.4%, above expectations of a 0.1% gain, and a measure of how much factory space is being used remained relatively high.
Retail sales increased 0.9%, the biggest gain in five months.
Job growth topped expectations in December, and the unemployment rate remains low.
Inflation pressures have not gone away, either. Last month ...
Import prices jumped 1.1% versus a forecast of 0.6%. Even if you exclude all fuels because oil prices have come down this month, you still find elevated gains in “core” import prices. They rose 0.2%, the most in three months.
The Producer Price Index rose 0.9% vs. expectations for a 0.5% gain. Here, too, “core” prices surprised the experts. Finished goods prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in the month instead of the expected 0.1%. The core crude goods PPI also rose 1%, a sign of inflation pressures further up the production “pipeline.”
The Consumer Price Index rose 0.5%, more than the 0.4% expected. The core CPI also gained 0.2%, the biggest increase since September. Price gains popped up in several categories of goods and services. And the year-over-year core inflation rate of 2.6%, remained well above the Fed's unofficial 2% ceiling.
Full article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article231.html |
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