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Nadeem
Veteran Investor
Joined: 11 Jul 2004
Posts: 639
Cash Points ££ 13955.74
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 Posted: Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:02 am Post subject: HUI Gold bugs Index and Crude Oil Analysis - Extreme Fear |
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Stockmarket trading has certain similarities with driving a car. As a commuter you may have driven the same route a thousand times to get to work, but every day is a new day and you always have to be ready for the unexpected, such as a child running out in front of you or someone suddenly cutting you up in heavy traffic.
We have traded these markets on www.clivemaund.com successfully over the past several weeks, avoiding heavy losses and making money in Put options in stocks such as Newmont Mining, and, just a few days back, or even a day or two ago, it looked like the drop would continue. But, like the first breath of wind before a storm, evidence has begun to appear that a possibly dramatic reversal to the upside may be close at hand.
We have seen a run of rather bullish looking candlesticks this week in PM stocks. Each day the Precious Metal stock indices have fallen significantly intraday, but gone on to close the day with only minor losses. The market is clearly finding support at these levels, and if we look at the 1-year chart for the HUI index, we can see that it arises from the trading range that developed just beneath current levels during much of September and into October. We had already taken the oversold condition indicated by the medium and short-term stochastics shown at the top and bottom of the chart into account, but had figured that after a brief relief rally to alleviate it, the market would drop again to lower levels, back down to the strong support in the 270 - 280 area. However, the all-important MSI indicator, the Maund Subscriber Index, has risen quickly in recent days to levels that indicate a market dripping fear, and a check of other sentiment indicators tells the same story.
BullionVault.com is currently giving a FREE gram of Swiss vaulted gold bullion to everyone who registers (worth $24)- to try the service and learn how to trade. Sign-up is easy, fast and credits you immediately.
The level of fear prevailing in this market now is that which normally signals a bottom. The HUI index has been down for 16 of the last 26 trading days, with the XAU index being down for 7 trading days in a row. In addition to this, oil marked out a Reversal Day hammer candlestick yesterday bang on our previously flagged critical $54 support level, providing collateral evidence that a sudden turnaround may be in the offing. We have seen continued dollar strength over the past couple of days as expected, but this has now taken it to normal overbought extremes. It is perhaps no coincidence that the President is going on television tonight to make the troops announcement.
Full Article - http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article228.html |
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