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housebuyer
Money Saver
Joined: 02 May 2005
Posts: 81
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 Posted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 3:00 am Post subject: Independant - Is 2007 the year in which house prices crash |
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Up another 10 per cent - or a market crash? It depends who you ask, says David Prosser
Published: 06 January 2007
Could house prices finally crash this year? Nobody wants to be the bearer of bad news. That may be why it is almost impossible to find a housing market expert who predicts a crash - or even a slowdown - this year.
But don't be misled; there is increasing nervousness about house prices. One national newspaper last week forecast a modest downturn in 2007. And on Tuesday, the Land Registry said house price inflation had slowed for the third month running in November. Prices still rose, but at a much lower rate.
So, could 2007 be the year the housing market's 10-year bull run comes to an end? Not if those analysts brave enough to make forecasts are to be believed. The various estate agents, mortgage lenders, housing specialists and think tanks that have made specific predictions about house prices all forecast further gains.
At the bottom end of predictions is the long-time housing market bear Capital Economics, which expects prices to rise by 3.5 per cent this year. At the top end, one online estate agency is predicting rises of up to 10 per cent.
Cast your mind back 12 months. This time last year, there was no shortage of predictions that prices would fall during 2006. Most forecasters plumped for modest gains of 2 to 3 per cent. In fact, the average figure across the UK in 2006 was almost 10 per cent.
On the face of it, then, there's not much to worry about. Yet a minority of analysts - including some respected commentators - are anxious. For example, in a poll of economists in the Financial Times this week, 11 of 41 analysts described the housing market as suffering from "irrational exuberance". That's not quite the same as predicting a market downturn, let alone a crash, but their concern is, at the very least, food for thought.
Then there's David Miles, the respected chief UK economist at the investment bank Morgan Stanley. In November, Miles warned that only half the recent growth in the housing market can be explained by genuine issues of demand and supply; the remainder was due to a speculative bubble that could be about to burst.
The economist's warning is as close as any credible analyst has come to predicting a house price crash this year. "A substantial fall in real house prices is likely at some point in the near future, though it could be one to two years away," he warned.
http://money.independent.co.uk/property/homes/article2126599.ece |
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